Bob and Dan discuss the storied career of Jaromir Jagr, the pain of being a Minnesota sports fan, and try to talk themselves into buying a $300 bottle of Final Fantasy Whisky
Bob and Dan have a spirited chat about Mario Lemieux’s records the loser point in the NHL, the merits of 3v3 over time, Lias Andersson throwing away his silver medal, and the playoff picture shaping up for the East and West conferences
Bob and Dan are back from a long “sabbatical” and can’t wait to get back into talking hockey! We talk about our life changes, and adapting to our new role as a new dad and and expectant dad. Then, we dive into an exhaustive Western Conference round-up…which teams surprise us, which are overperforming, which are underperforming, and more! Bob and Dan disagree on whether the Vegas Golden Knights are for real, and just how much trouble the Minnesota Wild are in.
Bob and Dan discuss the call-ups of Alex Stalock and Joel Eriksson-Ek, and whether the Wild’s game against the Senators was a slump buster. Then, the guys are joined by Giles and Ben from the GaTG podcast to talk potential playoff matchups and what the heck might be going on with Devan Dubnyk.
Bob and Dan talk about the Wild-Capitals matchup, then discuss Surdyk’s making their own laws. Then, they play the somewhat ill-fated Pi Day Jersey Number game, and set up for the Staal Brothers Drinking Game (TM)!
Bob and Dan discuss the Wild’s recent struggles, and whether fans should be worried about the Blackhawks re-taking the Central division. Then, the guys argue about whether the Wild are a ‘physical’ team…and what the heck does that even mean anyway. Plus, Mikael Granlund’s continued success, and THE MINNESOTA HIGH SCHOOL HOCKEY TOURNAMENT!!
Earlier in the week, I looked at Marco Scandella’s underlying stats. If you haven’t read it, I encourage you to go check it out! It lays down a foundation of where Scandella is, and leads into the discussion today of who he’s playing with.
Today, I wanted to dive deeper into some analysis of Scandella when paired with other players on the Wild blue line. I haven’t done a lot of this type of analysis, and I’m also using Corsica’s ‘Pairing’ feature to begin, so bear with me if I’m sort of feeling my way through this post. First off, let’s look at pairings over Scandella’s whole career. Here’s who he has been paired with most frequently:
- Jared Spurgeon: 1,687′
- Matt Dumba: 886′
- Nate Prosser: 865′
- Jonas Brodin: 811′
- Christian Folin: 395′
- Ryan Suter: 212′
Nick Schultz, Brent Burns (yep!), Jonathan Blum, Justin Falk, Tom Gilbert, and Cam Barker all skated with Scandella for 125 minutes or less, and are excluded from this analysis.
The above chart shows expected goals for and against for each combo, along with Corsi%. The first thing to notice (which I mentioned in the earlier post,) is that Scandella is not over 50% corsi with any D partner–he’s closest with Spurgeon, 49.6%, and around 45-46% with most others. I’d bet that the Spurgeon numbers are heavily driven by Jared, who is simply a beast…and the rest of them are just…yuck. In terms of xGF and xGA, Scandella/Suter have a wide disparity, but recall that there’s just about 120 minutes over the last seven years there. Scandella/Spurgeon have a very slight edge in goals scored (0.08 goals per sixty, so basically no difference,) while Scandella/Brodin have a noticeable edge in preventing goals. Scandella/Dumba have a fairly pronounced tendency to allow more goals, which is troubling considering how many minutes they play together, and also they are the third pair under Coach Boudreau. Taken together, this data suggests that there isn’t really a pairing where Scandella has thrived–his numbers are the best with Spurgeon, but again…I think that’s driven by #46 moreso than #6.
Now, let’s examine the Scandella/Dumba pair, which is the most common third pair this year. Here’s the same chart as above, but only for these two, and shows their production over time. Real quick, these two skated 136′ in 14-15, 420′ in 15-16 (nice), and 331′ so far in 16-17.
These two had a great year in 14-15, but I really think it’s a factor of sample size, with just 130 minutes and change. For the last two years, their CF% has been around 45%, which is just no bueno. There was a pretty wide gap in their expected goals in 15-16, which has shrunk a bit in 16-17, but the trend is still not great.
Finally, a quick look at Scandella’s WOWY numbers. This type of analysis has a lot of data points, so it’s tough to put on a chart, so this table will have to suffice–click through to enlarge the image.
Looking specifically at Scandella/Dumba, they do not appear to have significantly different corsi production when apart from each other, about 46-47%. One thing we do see is that their GF/GA numbers are stark, but that’s a factor of the team showing a great goal differential this year. It can be confusing to show expected goals and actual goals in the same post, so I hope that’s not misleading, but the data comes from different sites. It’s interesting to note that Scandella/Brodin have about a 55% corsi percentage together, and separately they both have sub-50%, but again, that’s probably a product of sample size, just 85 minutes together this year.
Ultimately, there’s not a lot of optimism coming from these underlying numbers. At 27, this is probably who Scandella is as a player, and at $4 million AAV, he’s likely to be exposed to the expansion draft, but there’s no guarantee that Vegas will take him. So, we’re left hoping he gets his groove back or continues to develop. With Suter, Spurgeon, and Dumba looking like core components of the Wild blue line, Scandella may end up as an expensive role player on the third pair. Which is too bad, because I still like him…and I sure hope he breaks out of this funk he’s been in over the last two years.
I am finally getting around to doing some analysis on one of the Wild players that I’ve liked for a while, but who is struggling this year–Marco Scandella. He’s just 27 years old, despite playing in his seventh NHL season…so we pretty much know what to expect from him, but they also say defensemen take a little longer to develop, so perhaps he could still show us something new. He’s got a booming slap shot, but is not known much as a goal scorer–he had a fantastic 14-15 season where he contributed 11 goals, but with a career line of (26+60=86; 0.24 pts/gm), we can expect that the offensive side of his game has developed about as much as it’s going to. Scandella still seems like a solid two-way defender who can contribute in all three zones, and could be a fine second- or third-pair defenseman. I’m going to highlight Scandella’s individual stats over his career today, and then look at some pairing stats and WOWY information later in the week. Let’s get down to it! Continue reading What’s up with Marco Scandella?
Bob is joined by Micah McCurdy from hockeyviz.com to talk about his work in visualizing hockey analytics, his process for creating new work, the future of fancy stats, and the unique space that Micah occupies in turning his hobby into his primary source of income.
“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” –Warren Buffet
Last night, news broke that the Minnesota Wild had traded for Martin Hanzal from the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for a boat load of draft picks. The full trade is as follows:
ARI sends Martin Hanzal, Ryan White, and a 2017 fourth-round pick. MIN sends Grayson Downing, a 2017 first-round pick, 2018 second-round pick, and a conditional 2019 fourth-round pick, which if my research is correct, could become a second-round pick if the Wild win two playoff series this year, or could disappear if Hanzal plays <50% of playoff games (so think of it as injury insurance.) Continue reading Martin Hanzal: Price is what you pay, Value is what you get