I’ve spent the week looking at a stat called the Disciplined Aggression Proxy (DAP), which attempts to show which players play a physical game without taking many minor penalties like slashing or interference, thereby putting the team at a disadvantage for two minutes. If you missed the first two posts for some reason, check out Part 1 and Part 2. Go ahead, I’ll wait. These numbers won’t mean anything if you don’t know the methodology. Continue reading #MNWild Disciplined Aggression – The Kids are Alright
I thought I’d try this new thing called “writing more.” So here we go! I have a lot of thoughts about the election, and normally I try to keep my political stuff to my twitter. I am still deciding on whether I want to write or talk on the podcast…but I will be posting something soon. I have tended to try to keep the hockey blog and pod as a space of escapism, where political stuff and real-world stuff are purposely kept out. But, that can no longer be the case.
Back to hockey for now. The Wild are at a tipping point early in the season for what to do with young Joel Erikkson Ek. I think most of us assumed he would get a few games at the pro level and then head back to Sweden, where he could arguably develop as much if nor more than the AHL. But EE surprised us all by scoring on his first shot. He had a great first couple of games and has been pretty much invisible over the last few games. The Wild have to decide whether to burn a year off his Entry Level Contract. Meaning, they have to weigh whether his contributions this year against his contributions in 2018-19, essentially. With nine games, we certainly have a small sample to analyze–but the problem is how much weight we put into that sample. My hunch is that they will burn his ELC year…they showed last year with Dumba that they are willing to take a chance, and if it pays off, it could really help them out in a time where their window may not be open as much as it is now.
So I won’t draw too many conclusions from the stats I’ll show, but I wanted to at least take a snap shot (get it!?) of what he’s done in his initial nine games.
- He has had insane puck luck. Erikkson Ek’s personal PDO is sitting at 108.97 right now, so let’s just call it 109. As we discussed on a recent podcast, personal PDO is really not a stat you want to use to evaluate a player. But, when we break it apart, we see that his on-ice Sh% is a hefty 13.9%, while his on-ice Sv% is .951. So, he’s been very fortunate with the puck bounces. This confounds an already small sample size, because with such extreme numbers, we basically have even less reason to trust the data.
- His deployment has been a bit more even than I would have thought. EE’s zone deployment (OZ-NZ-DZ) so far have been 36.9%, 29.8%, 33.3%. He’s got a reputation so far as a 200-foot player, so it seems Boudreau has mixed up his deployment a fair bit. The Wild have a different team composition than in recent years, so I’ll be watching all year to see who garners the DZ starts.
- He has not driven possession at all. Despite slightly favorable zone starts, his CF% is at an even 40% right now, which is really bad. Yes, a player’s individual corsi is not very telling, but I only include it here to show that it’s not been a strength of his. I thought about doing some WOWY analysis, but that’s bad because you take an impossibly small sample and break it down into even impossibly smaller samples. So *shrug.*
- He hasn’t had success in the face-off circle. 20 wins and 34 losses for a 37% win pct. You wouldn’t necessarily expect a 19-year old to excel in this area in his first NHL action, but again, I include it here for posterity. As a fourth-line center this year and a potential mantle of “no. 1 center of the future,” face-offs will be a key measurement…although there is research out there that shows that face-offs aren’t as important as people think, I tend to feel that they are “never not good,” so winning face-offs could be a pathway to icetime for EE.
- He has been more physical than you might expect. Alright, I’m totally grasping at straws here. I was set to include a stat about how he’s an extreme pass-first player, but couldn’t find the data that I really needed to back that up. Plus, I didn’t want to have a list of all negative things. Erikkson Ek is tied for sixth on the team with 14 hits at even strength. He has 10 hits against, so he’s doling out more punishment than he receives. As a European player, he will undoubtedly have a reputation as a finesse player, so if he can play a bit rougher than people expect, that might lead to some increased opportunity for him. Hits are generally a terrible stat because each arena counts them differently. So, take all this with many grains of salt, but it’s at least something to watch for.
Overall, from what we’ve seen in this early season, it might make more sense for the club to send EE back to Sweden, even though it could hurt this year. He has shown great positioning and some really good instincts, but clearly he needs more seasoning. Whether that’s in the AHL or in Sweden is beyond my pay grade, but overall my gut tells me that based on the flashes we’ve seen, it may pay better dividends to have an extra year of control over a player that could be a main contributor in the next couple of years.
What do you think? Should the Wild keep Easy-E on the NHL roster, or send him overseas for more training? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter, @BobaFenwick. Thanks for reading!
On a recent episode of the Hashtag Hockey Podcast, we talked about some new albums that we have been really enjoying. So, Dan decided to jot down some information about some of the bands and albums we discussed. Enjoy!
Nathaniel Rateliff & the Night Sweats (August 2015, Stax Records)
Two parts Rock & Roll, one part Gospel, one part Folk, topped with a healthy dose of brass and Blues is the ideal recipe for the cocktail to which we might just drink our lives away. Nathaniel Rateliff and The Night Sweats have created an album that is joyful, honest, and just a lot of fun to listen to. While the song “S.O.B.” may not be the truest representation of what Rateliff does (it was written as a joke), it is a great example of how this group can do no wrong. The song is undeniably catchy, and is brilliant in the way that the central joke, “If I can’t get clean, I’m going to drink my life away,” blurs the line between absurdity and reality. This self-titled album will keep you warm during some of the cold Winter nights ahead. Well, maybe this and a bottle of bourbon. Enjoy responsibly! Continue reading Music We Love – Edition 1
Sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes, well…the bear, he eats you. I thought Devan Dubnyk didn’t play that bad in the first period of this game, but he let one in right off a power play faceoff, and then was collided with to allow the second goal. I didn’t think Dumba pushed the defender into Duby that much, so I was a little annoyed that they let the goal stand. But, that early in the game, there was nothing else to do but buckle down and try to get back in the game. Continue reading HTH Game Recap 11-12-15 Minnesota at Carolina: An uphill victory
When Zach Parise was injured last week, there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth, particularly after Dubnyk gave up a couple soft goals against the Predators. With both Parise and Marco Scandella out of the lineup, the Wild needed players to step up and make an impact in order for them to stay competitive in the extremely tough Central division.
On Saturday, Devan Dubnyk pitched a shutout, while this evening, Thomas Vanek stepped up in a big way with two goals en route to a whomping of the Winnipeg Jets. Through 13 games in 2014-15, Vanek had just one goal and eight assists. It would be another nine games before he potted his second goal last year, just after Thanksgiving. Tonight against the Jets he had six shots, four of them classified by war-on-ice.com as ‘high danger scoring chances’ … and I think you might already know how a couple of those turned out. Chrsitian Folin made a very nice pass from about the Wild’s faceoff dots to hit Vanek at the blue line, where he confidently rifled one short side past Pavelec. Vanek looked completely in flow tonight, and was thinking several moves ahead of just about everyone on the ice. Continue reading HTH Game Recap 11-10-15 Winnipeg vs Minnesota: Vanek the Destroyer